Good News, Bad News, Worse News

The Washington Post says that Obama is gaining on the Hildabeast. Hilary's lead is now 12 points, which still isn't great for Obama, but it's a huge turnaround. He's also tied the poll among likely Black voters; he'll need more than a tie, but a 40 point deficit to Hilary in January was u-g-l-y.

That's the good news.

According to Dick Morris, political genius, in his recent column on Fox here,

"If it seems early to be focusing on the ups and downs of national polling, consider the expedited calendar for pursuit of the nominations this year and next. Nineteen states, with half of America's population, have moved or are moving their primaries up to February 5, 2008, barely three weeks after the Iowa caucuses and two after the New Hampshire primary. Among these states are California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina and Georgia.
The effect will be to choose a nominee within a three-week window in the first days of 2008. To be able to mount a campaign in at least half the country by February 5, 2008, a candidate will have to amass a huge war chest in 2007. Anybody who does not have a huge bank account, perhaps as much as $100 million by January of 2008 isn't going to win the nomination.
This steep fund raising curve makes it imperative to be the front-runner in the fall of 2006. Only the leader in each party's pack of candidates will be able to make the financial cut."

I could be way off, but I just don't see Obama out-fundraising Hilary. Bad news.

For the Republicans, Giuliani is smoking McCain, who is using all of his efforts toward being the exact opposite of the 2000 version of himself. Not that McCain is my boy - he and I have some disagreements - but Rudy Giuliani might be a 170º political turn from myself.