NL Central Thoughts

In order of finish last year:

St. Louis (83-78), World Champions, Greatest Team in MLB, 3-Time Reigning Division Champions
The division's best offense should still be really good. Aaron Miles (!) has been replaced with Adam Kennedy, but Jim Edmonds is a year older and Juan Encarnacion is still himself. The Cards should have a decent-not-great rotation again, provided Kip Wells isn't awful.

Houston (82-80)
They basically lost Andy Pettitte, and then replaced Willy Tavares with Carlos Lee. The latter alone is worth 4 wins. If Brad Lidge closes like his talent would suggest, and Woody Williams forgets he was born during the LBJ administration, they should take the Central.

Cincinnati (80-82)
Yawn. Five years ago, this team had a future. The surest way to blowing a team's hopes is having Jim Bowden as your GM. Fortunately for the Reds, he's out. They're still 2 years away from suggesting a real shot.

Milwaukee (75-87)
One looks at some of the moves Milwaukee has made this winter, and there's reason for optimism. Damian Miller is now Johnny Estrada. Doug Davis is now Jeff Suppan. A hurt JJ Hardy is now a healthy one. Those three moves alone could have put Milwaukee into St. Louis land (around 83 wins). Then there's the bad news: Carlos Lee is now Corey Koskie, effectively negating each of those pluses.
If Milwaukee pitches out of their mind (with a healthy Sheets and Turnbow getting turned off), and Hardy learns how to get an OBP of at least .330, this could be a .500 team.

Pittsburgh (67-95)
I'm as interested in seeing the Pirates this year as I am anyone. No joke. If there's some untapped power in Freddy Sanchez's bat (I could see it either way), then Sanchez-LaRoche-Bay is a legit heart of the order. The bad news: that's all they have in that lineup. I'm told their rotation is studful, but I'm not betting on it. They still need someone to set the table (that's a recurring theme for this division).

Chicago (66-96)
The single biggest reason to look forward to watching the Cubs? Not Soriano. Not Zambrano. It's Derek Lee being healthy and it's not even close.
Soriano's free agency signing was the most overrated move by anyone in the offseason. No joke. Finally, for the first time in his career, he decided to draw more than 40 walks last year. If one looks at his numbers with any skepticism at all, one sees a player playing for a contract, and I just can't assume he's going to be the '06 version of himself with the Cubs.
But Derek Lee is good.